Security Incidents in Syrian Arab Republic: Trends and Patterns

In the Syrian Arab Republic... 289 humanitarian workers have died, 228 humanitarian workers have been wounded, 70 humanitarian workers have been kidnapped.

1 Executive Summary

2 Background: The Conflict

2.1 Historical Context

The Syrian conflict represents one of the most devastating and complex crises of the 21st century. Beginning as peaceful pro-democracy protests in 2011 during the Arab Spring, it rapidly escalated into a full-scale civil war when the Bashar al-Assad regime responded with violent crackdowns. The conflict evolved into a multi-sided proxy war with international powers backing different factions:

  • 2011: Protests against Assad’s authoritarian regime met with violent government response
  • 2012-2013: Formation of rebel groups and escalation to full civil war
  • 2014-2015: Rise of ISIS capturing significant Syrian territory
  • 2015: Russian military intervention supporting the Assad regime
  • 2016-2019: Government forces recapture key cities including Aleppo and eastern Ghouta
  • 2019-2020: Turkish operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria
  • 2020-2023: Relatively frozen conflict lines with occasional flare-ups

2.2 Recent Escalation

The Syrian conflict entered a dramatic new phase in late 2024 with the sudden collapse of the Assad regime after 50 years of family rule. This upheaval has fundamentally altered the dynamics of the war:

  • November 30, 2024: Rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) seized Aleppo
  • December 8, 2024: Damascus fell to rebel forces, ending the Assad dynasty with Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Moscow
  • 600,000+ estimated deaths since the beginning of the conflict
  • 6.9 million internally displaced persons
  • 5.4 million refugees abroad
  • Multiple concurrent conflicts continuing across Syrian territory:
    • Kurdish forces clashing with Arab tribes in northeast
    • Islamic State maintaining presence and launching attacks
    • Israeli strikes against Iranian and Syrian military positions
    • Iran-backed militias targeting U.S. forces in eastern Syria

3 Map of Incidents

Code 
# icon_path = "images/hazard2.png"
# valid_points = country_data[country_data['latitude'].notna() & country_data['longitude'].notna()]

# country_map = folium.Map(location=[31.9, 35.2], zoom_start=8)

# coords = []

# for _, row in valid_points.iterrows():
#     coords.append((row['latitude'], row['longitude']))
    
#     popup_html = f"""
#     <b>Location:</b> {row['location']}, {row['country']}<br>
#     <b>Year:</b> {row['year']}<br>
#     <b>Total Affected:</b> {row['total_affected']}<br>
#     <b>Attack Type:</b> {row.get('means_of_attack', 'Unknown')}
#     """

#     icon = folium.CustomIcon(
#         icon_image=icon_path,
#         icon_size=(20, 20)
#     )

#     folium.Marker(
#         location=[row['latitude'], row['longitude']],
#         popup=folium.Popup(popup_html, max_width=300),
#         icon=icon
#     ).add_to(country_map)

# if coords:
#     country_map.fit_bounds(coords)

# country_map

4 Temporal Trends in Security Incidents

4.1 Incident Frequency Over Time

Figure 1: Security incidents in Palestine from 2002 to 2025

5 Nature of Security Incidents

5.1 Predominant Attack Types

Figure 2: Most common types of attacks in Palestine

5.1.1 Analysis of Attack Methods

5.2 Attack Contexts

5.2.1 Analysis of Attack Contexts

6 Human Impact of Security Incidents

6.1 Casualties by Category

Figure 3: Total casualties in Palestine by category

6.1.1 Analysis of Casualty Patterns

7 Major Incidents

7.1 Top 5 Most Impactful Security Incidents

Table 1: Most impactful security incidents in Palestine (by total affected)
Year Location Total Affected Killed Wounded Context Actor Type
1546 2013 Project site 11 0 11 Combat/Crossfire Unknown
2020 2016 Project site 9 9 0 Combat/Crossfire Foreign or coalition forces
2216 2017 Office/compound 9 9 0 Combat/Crossfire Foreign or coalition forces
3234 2021 Project site 8 4 4 Combat/Crossfire Unknown
1604 2013 Road 7 0 0 Ambush Non-state armed group: Global

7.1.1 Analysis of Major Incidents

8 Conclusions and Recommendations

8.1 Key Findings

8.2 Recommendations

8.2.1 For Security Planning

8.2.2 For Humanitarian Organizations

8.2.3 For Policy Development

8.2.4 For Future Research